Macro improvement coupled with potential risks in fundamental supply, aluminum prices rebound to high levels again [SMM Aluminum Price Weekly Review]

On the macro front, domestic "anti-rat race" trading has not yet fully concluded, while expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts have risen, maintaining positive macro sentiment that provided support across base metals. The Indian government's announcement of a signed agreement with Russia to deepen cooperation in aluminum and fertilizer sectors raised concerns among some investors about potential future supply disruptions of Chinese aluminum, as well as possible tariff hikes by the US and Europe on Indian and Russian aluminum. This drove LME aluminum prices to surge above $2,600/mt during the week.

Fundamentally, supply-side changes remained relatively small, with aluminum production showing modest growth. Cost-wise, the weekly total industry cost stood at 16,738 yuan/mt with minimal fluctuations, maintaining high profit margins. Key demand-side observations showed continued weakness in downstream processed material consumption due to off-season effects. Previously strong sectors like home appliances and PV witnessed growth slowdowns, while some aluminum export orders declined. The construction sector still exhibited worse-than-seasonal contraction. Social aluminum inventory breached the 550,000-mt threshold. Although uneven arrivals caused temporary inventory data volatility during the week, elevated aluminum prices during the off-season may further dampen consumption, sustaining the inventory buildup trend in the short term.

Overall, macro optimism coupled with potential aluminum supply risks drove prices higher, but substantial inventory buildup pressure persists during the consumption off-season. After digesting positive sentiment, the aluminum price center is expected to pull back, with the 21,000 yuan/mt level remaining under pressure. Similarly, most processors showed stronger price acceptance below 20,500 yuan/mt, where just-in-time procurement capacity found some validation. SHFE aluminum is projected to trade between 20,500-20,900 yuan/mt next week, while LME aluminum may fluctuate within $2,580-2,650/mt.

SMM technical model forecasts: For aluminum_the most-traded contract_closing price from this Friday to next Thursday (2025-08-14), the price range is [20,105, 20,910] with a center at 20,550 (unit: yuan/mt). Extreme range: [19,720, 21,240]; normal range: [19,980, 21,020]; conservative range: [20,230, 20,800]. Support range: [19,980, 20,230]; resistance range: [20,800, 21,020].

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